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		<title>Recovery or another real estate bubble?</title>
		<link>http://independencetitle.com/recovery-or-another-real-estate-bubble/</link>
		<comments>http://independencetitle.com/recovery-or-another-real-estate-bubble/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 May 2013 21:39:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mark Sprague</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Independence Voice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[appreciation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bubble]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[foreclosures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inventory]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[speculation]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://independencetitle.com/?p=14439</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is a broad consensus that the housing market nationally, regionally and locally has bottomed, and is on its way to recovery. The hanging question is if this housing recovery is real, temporary, or if it could grow into a bubble. Home ownership is down nationally In April of this year, the US homeownership rate ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[There is a broad consensus that the housing market nationally, regionally and locally has bottomed, and is on its way to recovery. The hanging question is if this housing recovery is real, temporary, or if it could grow into a bubble.
<br /><br />
<strong>Home ownership is down nationally </strong>
<br /><br />
In April of this year, the US homeownership rate hit an 18-year low, signaling a shift away from homeownership towards rental housing. The homeownership rate in the United States fell during the first quarter 2013 to 65 percent, plunging to the lowest level since 1995, according to the US Census Bureau. The homeownership rate is now far below the 2005 boom peak of 69%. Homeownership was lowest in the West at 59 percent and highest in the Midwest at 70+ percent. Although Americans are still buying homes, tighter credit conditions and limited inventory are still holding back many homebuyers who are opting to rent. The Great Recession slowed down household formation, but it did not stop it. Remember, people are still graduating from college, getting married, having families, etc., so there still is a need for shelter. Here in Texas, the need for housing is great.
<br /><br />
Many investors are seeing this as an opportunity. The consumers’ inability to buy for whatever reason has allowed cash investors to provide shelter. Over the past few years equity REITS such as Blackstone Equity and Colony Capital have invested an estimated $6.5+ billion (just these two groups), scooping up thousands of foreclosed and REO single family homes. The single family rental market was a large portion of the market, even before the housing crash, with 16+ million homes designated as rentals nationally in 2010, according to the US Census. Add on top of that at least five million plus foreclosures, many of which could become investor-owned rentals, and the potential scale is apparent.
<br /><br />
These properties are traditionally in distressed markets where the ability to purchase at a significant discount is still available (often a 40+% discount to current construction costs). The opportunity provides a long-term income stream as well as the opportunity for appreciation — which may come slowly at first but will improve along with the greater housing market. Historically, buying in downturns has produced a strong return, from 10+% annually to much higher. 
<br /><br />
The key to their success will be effectively managing these properties, which are spread out over geographic areas rather than concentrated as they would be in an multifamily or commercial opportunity. These REIT’s are trying to get as close to the multi-family apartment model as possible. While there cannot be one landlord in one location, REIT employees are armed with tablets and laptops, helping communicate current information from the field. From the inspection and construction teams inspecting potential homes for purchase, to the project managers checking in on homes they are rehabilitating, to the agents showing homes to potential renters, to the handy-men answering renter complaints, all the information is transmitted back to the main office from wherever they are. 
<br /><br />
Other than DFW, the large REIT’s have not been as active in single family in Texas. The inability to buy large numbers of discounted properties due to the limited supply of homes has prevented the large equity groups from making significant plays in Texas. It doesn’t mean it couldn’t happen, this analyst just believes that that opportunity passed a couple of years ago in this state. 
<br /><br />
<strong>Low Inventory</strong>
<br /><br />
Meanwhile, here in Texas, there is a shortage of existing homes and new homes for sale. Nationally, there were only 1.68 million previously owned properties on the market in March 2013, down from 1.93 million the prior year, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s the fewest since March 2000. Here in Austin there is only a 2.7 month supply of resales available, 25 percent fewer than April 2012. In San Antonio housing inventory has held steady at 5.2 months since February. Houston is at a 3.4 month supply, a thirteen year low. And in DFW there is currently a 3.3 month supply of homes— the lowest inventory in almost 20 years. In a healthy balanced market, there’s roughly a six month supply. This March, nationally the number had fallen to a 4.7 month supply — a market favorable to sellers. Limited inventory pushes prices up. The median value of an existing home rose 11.8 per cent, the most since November 2005, to $184,300 last month from $164,800 in March 2012. Many listings are seeing multiple offers. Does this indicate a coming real estate bubble? Not quite.
<br /><br />
<strong>The same, but different </strong>
<br /><br />
One of the reasons we are hearing murmurs of a bubble are the stories of frenzy – homes in Austin are selling as fast as they are being listed, and those in desirable areas are receiving multiple offers, sometimes above list price. However, this isn’t a speculative bubble. It&#8217;s driven by the lowest inventory levels we’ve seen in years. As stated above, nationally, regionally and locally the inventories are low; home inventories are at 1.9+ million units, which is equivalent to about 4.7 months of supply, based on the current sales rates. And inventories keep dwindling on a year-over-year basis with little to limited replacement. Nationally inventories continue to decline, with 135 out of 146 markets tracked by NAR experiencing year-over-year inventory declines, with about 25% of the markets seeing declines of 20% or more. New home construction has been held on a tight leash, with limited speculative construction due to previous lower demand. Considering that, there&#8217;s no way we&#8217;re getting to six months worth of supply any time soon locally or nationally &#8211; not unless home construction activity picks up in a major way. New home construction remains over 65% below the peak, which also flies in the face of any bubble talk.
<br /><br />
<strong>What about foreclosures? </strong>
<br /><br />
Yes, they continue to happen, but they have slowed down dramatically from the top of the bust. Foreclosures fell 27% from where they were a year ago, to the lowest level since 2006. Yes, they continue to happen in Texas, but because of demand remain less than 1.5% of all sales. They are basically a non-factor in this region and they have slowed down dramatically nationally.
<br /><br />
<strong>Values improving </strong>
<br /><br />
As more buyers bid on fewer properties, prices are being forced up. Home prices are rising even as homeownership drops. Prices in the top twenty cities have risen 9.3 percent in the past year, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices that track home prices in twenty major metropolitan markets.
<br /><br />
Inventory will continue to be challenged as long as interest rates remain low. The tight supply isn’t the only factor slowing the housing market. Homebuyers are facing fierce competition because of record low rates. It is hard to argue with purchasing when rates are so low. Who could refuse the Federal Reserve’s cheap credit? So yes, the claim that the housing rebound is closely tied to the Fed’s campaign to lower interest rates is true. The Fed Rate which has pushed down mortgage interest rates to historic lows has made housing an attractive (and affordable) investment. The low interest rates have lured investors of all stripes to buy homes, a large factor in the diminished inventory we discussed.
<br /><br />
So, when you couple this scarcity of listings &#8211; particularly high-quality ones &#8211; with historically low interest rates, what do you get? Competition for properties, of course. It&#8217;s the basic economic principles of supply and demand at work. But as we have stated before, we don&#8217;t have to fret about this situation leading to another bubble. 
<br /><br />
First, increasing record low mortgage rates will slowly erode record affordability. Borrowing costs for a 30-year fixed mortgage just hit 3.51%, the highest level in six weeks, yet are still tremendously affordable compared to the boom. As rates creep higher, it should help contain demand and slow purchases. Second, most mortgage applicants now boast FICO scores above 740, over a 100 points higher than during the boom. Yes, the industry wants to improve and increase lending. There is more capital available than ever before at the banks and equity groups, but they are still concerned about down payments and lending standards. Lending standards remain tight. Insisting on higher credit scores ensures that the real estate market doesn&#8217;t get (way) ahead of itself again. 
<br /><br />
To have a bubble of any type, you need speculation and financing. There may be some speculation happening locally, but it isn’t the short term house-flipping type speculation seen in the boom years in CA, FL, etc. Lenders and appraisals continue to be cautious, taking a lot of the wind out of potential bubble concerns. What we are seeing locally is genuine demand, driven by job creation and inmigration, and low supply due to the slowdown in home construction in the last five years. Increasing values are because of need, and not the speculation we saw in the boom. Any speculation is tempered by the large capital needed to be an investor, typically at least 25% down.
<br /><br />
<strong>High Demand </strong>
<br /><br />
Whether it is local, regional or national, we have had a record low number of home sales the last five years. Household buying slowed, while household formation did not. With little to no inventory being produced the last five years that demand is finally catching up to us. Austin needs 23,000 to 25,000 to meet demand, San Antonio 18,000 to 22,000. Another way to look at it, is for every two jobs, you historically have one housing start. That hasn’t happened in any of the Texas metros over the last five years. So, we are playing catch up as well as facing future demand, leading to a healthy local and regional markets for a while.
<br /><br />
The continued strength of national, regional and local employment will continue to push the demand for housing, whether rental or purchase. There is always a need for ‘shelter’, both new and used.
<br /><br />
The bottom line is that we don’t appear to be in another real estate bubble. Not yet, at least. Is the potential there? Always. But again there is a difference between demand and speculation, and what the Texas metros are experiencing is a strong demand, not speculation.  So, forget talks of a bubble and continue to look for ways to profit from the current recovery.




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		<title>Another look at Basel III</title>
		<link>http://independencetitle.com/another-look-at-basel-iii/</link>
		<comments>http://independencetitle.com/another-look-at-basel-iii/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 20:08:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mark Sprague</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Independence Voice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bailout]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[basel iii]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lending]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[regulations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strict]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://independencetitle.com/?p=14418</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Last year, we raised concern about a new round of banking regulations, known as Basel III, that was put in place for banks at the start of this year. The overall affect on banks is to require more capital and harsher terms for real estate loans. The new regulations began to be implemented January 1st ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[Last year, we raised concern about a new round of banking regulations, known as Basel III, that was put in place for banks at the start of this year. The overall affect on banks is to require more capital and harsher terms for real estate loans. The new regulations began to be implemented January 1st of 2013, so we thought now would be a good time to touch on this subject again.
<br /><br />
For those unconcerned and uninitiated about Basel III, from my eyes it has the potential to slow real estate and small business lending from banks, local and national. Basel III’s purpose was to set precautionary measures on banks and were made to protect the economy from financial crises similar to that of our last recession. There was a real danger of the international banking system collapsing in 2008. The Federal Reserve and other countries’ central banks stepped in to bail out the affected institutions, in some cases even taking over investment banks to ensure their continued operation. The prevailing thought was to keep the banks and those industries open to prevent a total international financial meltdown. Basel III was intended to ensure banks accept a level of responsibility for the financial economy they operate within and to act as a safeguard against further collapse.
<br /><br />
The Basel III reforms arose from the concern of the world’s leading countries, politicians, central bankers, business leaders, and economists that entire national economies and to a great extent the material well-being of all their citizens had been put at risk by the high-risk behavior of a handful of major banking institutions mainly located in USA, Switzerland, England, and other industrial powers. They had grown so big, particularly when you looked at the size of their assets and risks compared to their national economies, that they had become “too big to fail”. If they were not rescued, their collapse would cause even more severe national and international economic damage through job losses, housing repossessions, reduced GDP and lending of credit. In addition, the burden and need of saving these giant institutions would and will continue to cost ordinary taxpayers heavily.
<br /><br />
Although Basel III was initiated and championed by the finance industry, the industry has lobbied since aggressively against certain aspects of the Basel III reforms. Lately though there seems to be mounting evidence that the industry sees and agrees with the requirements as beneficial in the long term. That’s good, since the industry needs help in improving and rehabilitating the industry’s reputation among the investment community, depositors, law-makers, and consumers.
<br /><br />
Basel III put in higher capital and liquidity requirements that require three times the equity buffers previously required under the old Basel II accords. In addition, Basel III puts harsher requirements and restrictions on banking activities such as trading for their own profit and forced structural changes for most international and large banks. The whole purpose was to force the financial industry to have a much stronger foundation of solid assets that are designed to withstand sudden market disruption as experienced in late 2008. And to do this, they must have greater stores of spare capital on hand to tide them over temporary difficulties.
Basel III was designed to eliminate – or at least greatly reduce – the danger of another financial crisis. These guidelines were produced by the Bank for International Settlements that is referred to as the “central bankers’ bank” – based in Basel, Switzerland (from where the Basel Accords draw their name). These financial and accounting guidelines are intended to make the world’s banks – and especially the systemically important international institutions stronger and safer. These global standards were initiated January 1st of 2013 and must be fully implemented by 2019.
<br /><br />
It was the financial industries interconnectedness, massive trading, and lack of oversight and vulnerability of the financial sector that caused the crisis. For those outside the financial industry, what does this mean? Many banks, investment banks and hedge funds of many countries had built up excessive on and off-balance sheet leverage. In the eagerness to achieve profits there was an aggressive erosion of the level and quality of the capital base being held to protect and potentially prevent risk (derivatives come to mind). During this time, regional and international banks were holding insufficient capital liquidity buffers. The banking system therefore was not able to absorb the resulting systemic trading and credit losses, which in turn resulted in the financial meltdown of 2009. All this was created by aggressive liberal lending standards that many financial institutions were using. Politicians were calling for more aggressive liberal standards for lending to increase home ownership rates for decades. Home ownership shot up to 69% nationally from its previous average of 65%. It doesn’t sound like a lot, but a devastating effect on the financial world. 
<br /><br />
The overall purpose of the Basel III regulation package as well as the previous two agreements was to ensure that the financial sector remains in a position to fulfill their primary function of providing credit to individuals and businesses and maintaining their liquidity by maintaining a safety net of capital. The hope of the reforms is to improve the banking sector’s ability to absorb shocks arising from future financial and economic stress, whatever the source, thus reducing the risk of spillover from the financial sector to the real economy.
<br /><br />
The underlying principle or purpose of Basel III is clear and simple. First and foremost the financial community is there to serve the broader economy. The self serving attitude of bankers engaging in high risk, high profit investment strategies, secure in the knowledge of a government bailout, has to stop. The federal government established the Federal Reserve to have “A strong and resilient banking system to be the foundation for sustainable economic growth, as banks are at the centre of the credit intermediation process between savers and investors.” The banks are to provide and offer critical services to consumers, small and medium-sized enterprises, large corporate firms and governments who rely on them to conduct their daily business, both at a domestic and international level.
<br /><br />
Some of the unintended favorable consequences of the new rules are already emerging. Banks are seeing their capital boosted much more quickly than either they or the regulators expected. That’s good news, correct? Yes and no – many banks have been forced to shed assets and cut back on lending rather than go to their shareholders to ask for more capital to help boost ratios the regulators require. It may be making the banking system more sound, but have these capital requirements had the necessary effect on lending? Locally and regionally in Texas the answer is yes, however on a national basis the capital requirements have slowed the lending process. As well as Texas is doing, we are dependent on the rest of the nation. Small business loans as well as more aggressive real estate lending are part of the rebuilding process. 
<br /><br />
So yes, Basel III and other financial regulatory related measures (Dodd-Frank, etc.) adopted by the national and international regulators have forced the banks to maintain a much bigger capital base. The long term result is that the banks will be forced to adopt a more responsible outlook that reflects on their contribution to society at large in their actions as well as to their own internal goals. A great example is that bonuses will only be paid out for longer-term, sustainable performance rather than for short-lived profits. Most importantly, Basel III outlines that banks small and large have been warned to devise a system for closing their doors without help from taxpayers if they get themselves into trouble.
<br /><br />
How does it work?
<br /><br />
This is probably more than most want to know; as stated previously, the main elements of Basel III are designed to render the financial sector as immune and protected as possible from future upheavals both from within and outside national borders, as well as protect the banks from themselves and aggressive practices. They start with the integrity of their capital base. Individual banks must in future hold more, high-quality capital to protect them against unexpected losses to help them ride through any traumas in the financial markets. There are four main elements in the package.
<br /><br />
First, more capital is required. Banks and financial institutions must hold core tier one capital – the highest-quality assets – equal to seven percent of their assets after they’ve been adjusted for risk. The biggest institutions – the so-called systemically important financial banks (a bank, insurance company, or other financial institution whose failure might trigger a financial crisis) must carry an extra 1-2.5+% in capital, giving them a total of up to 9.5% of risk-weighted assets. If they don’t, they face restrictions on the payment of bonuses and dividends that might otherwise affect the firm’s overall integrity. If the bank is thought to be failing or “non-viable”, the capital can be written off or converted to common shares at the discretion of the local regulator. The purpose of this is to force losses on the risk takers and shareholders rather than on taxpayers or the central banks. Other regulatory guidelines are put in place to further shock-proof a firm if needed. If authorities judge that a bank has put itself in danger by lending too much, they can order it to boost common equity by up to 2.5%. Again, this is a large amount of capital when you begin to look at the weighted risk of certain loans such as real estate, which went from a 100% risk to 150% risk. 
<br /><br />
Second, management of risk. Among other measures all banks must conduct much more rigorous analysis of the risk inherent in certain securities such as complex debt packages and the capital needed. Derivatives and their capital requirements should garner much more analysis and capital potentially.
<br /><br />
Third, leverage. Leverage of capital at banks has always been regulated. However Basel III focuses on reducing the ratio of assets that banks, especially the biggest national and international institutions, have built up in relation to deposits. Basel III raises much tougher standards than before. In the future banks must include off-balance sheet exposures when they measure leverage. 
<br /><br />
Fourth, market discipline and disclosure. To improve the understanding of the risks banks may be running, they must make far more complete disclosures than before the crisis. This particularly applies to their exposure to off-balance sheet vehicles and corporations, how they are reported in the accounts, and how banks calculate their capital ratios and include those risks under the new guidelines.
<br /><br />
What does this mean for the banks in layman’s terms?
<br /><br />
As stated above, all banks and financial institutions must have enough cash and easy-to-sell assets on hand to survive a 30-day crisis in the financial markets, even though the turmoil was caused by outside forces.
You have read about the bank stress tests. Basel III demands stronger stress tests. Under new standards, banks and financial institutions must retain sufficient high-quality liquid assets to survive a 30-day scenario when its funding comes under pressure whether through its own or another’s actions. For you and me, it means that small business and real estate loans will require stronger capital or equity in loan to value needs. No more interest only or less than 20% equity on loans.
<br /><br />
To avoid an excessive reliance on short-term financing that is vulnerable to abrupt changes in the markets; Basel III established a new net stable funding ratio designed to meet any mismatches in a firm’s liquidity profile. Thus, a bank’s obligations are carefully compared with its sources of financing. 
<br /><br />
To help bank supervisors analyze the status of a bank’s liquidity, Basel III has drawn up what most consider harsher and stronger industry-wide measurements known as “monitoring metrics”. Once again, the systemically significant banks whose failure is deemed to be particularly dangerous will be required to “gold-plate” their liquidity ratios. Again, the idea is that banks manage their leverage and risk appropriately and have capital to serve as a buffer. Overall, purpose of the metrics is to increase their capacity to absorb losses without endangering the rest of the banking community.
<br /><br />
So, what does this mean for you and me? First realize that banks in the US have more capital today than ever before in banking history. That foundation of capital strength is needed as the economy continues to struggle towards growth.
<br /><br />
We are blessed in Texas with quality job creation and a strong economy, which in turn has helped the large and regional banks to be able to maintain and raise their capital standards, which in turn allows them to have more aggressive lending practices. 
<br /><br />
The ability to fund new businesses without a track record will be challenged. Banks and regulators want to see a strong track record and capital to sustain any hiccups along the way in a business’s growth. Again in Texas, because of the strength of the markets, it should allow lending that other regions of the nation are not seeing presently.
<br /><br />
Nationally the banking and ‘shadow banking’ industry are recovering. But lending in Florida, Nevada and other states that were hit so hard by the financial bust will continue to be challenged. This challenge opens up the opportunity for businesses to look to Texas and its growing economy. 
<br /><br />
So, Basel III seems to have stabilized the market both regionally and nationally. But we are only a few months into the new guidelines. Time will tell.

 ]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Interest rate behavior</title>
		<link>http://independencetitle.com/14400/</link>
		<comments>http://independencetitle.com/14400/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 21:28:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mark Sprague</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[All]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[capital]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[equity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[interest rates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantitative easing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[supply]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[We all know that now is the time to buy real estate with interest rates so low. The Federal Reserve has maintained that they will keep rates low until they feel the economy is fully recovered. Even with home prices in our Texas metros near an all time high, there will not a more affordable ...]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[We all know that now is the time to buy real estate with interest rates so low. The Federal Reserve has maintained that they will keep rates low until they feel the economy is fully recovered. Even with home prices in our Texas metros near an all time high, there will not a more affordable time to buy.
<br /><br />
<strong>Will rates go up?  </strong><br />
As we have stated before, eventually, yes! In the short term, no. According to most experts and the Federal Reserve, they should stay low through 2013 and possibly longer. There are many factors involved. Also know that over a year ago, in this same forum, I and others felt that mortgage rates would be over 5% by the end of 2012.
<br /><br />
Historically this is the longest we have seen rates stay this low. Please understand that the Federal Reserve has kept rates low for a reason. By law, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is to achieve maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
<br /><br />
 
<a href="http://independencetitle.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/voice-graph.jpg"><img src="http://independencetitle.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/voice-graph.jpg" alt="voice graph" width="629" height="268" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-14401" /></a>
<br /><br />
The Great Recession and the worldwide financial crisis that started in early 2007 and ended late in 2009 has been one of the most intense periods of national and global financial strain since the Great Depression, and it led to a deep and prolonged global economic downturn affecting almost every developed country. Europe and many countries are still struggling with the after effects of the recession.
Thankfully, the Federal Reserve, our central bank, took some extraordinary steps in response to the financial crisis to help stabilize the U.S. economy and financial system. For those of you that don’t remember, these actions included reducing short-term interest rates from the central banks (the money the Fed lends to all member banks) to near zero, in the hopes of reducing longer-term interest rates and to reduce the cost of borrowing to provide support for the U.S. economy. These lower interest rates help consumers and businesses finance new spending and investing that in turn help support the prices of many other assets, such as stocks and houses. 
<br /><br />
<strong>Quantitative easing</strong><br />
To further encourage the economy, the Federal Reserve has purchased large quantities of long-term Treasury securities in a strategy dubbed “quantitative easing”. The overall planned financial effect is to force lenders and equity to put their money into higher risk, higher return investments, rather than bank CDs. Slowly, the economy has begun recovering, but progress towards the stated goal of maximum employment has been slow and the unemployment rate remains high compared to historic norms. The good news is that despite rock-bottom interest rates, inflation has remained low, apart from some temporary variations associated with fluctuations in prices of energy and other commodities. Also the low lending rates have created an opportunity for buyers (consumers and business) to invest in real estate and other goods, improving the national economy.
<br /><br />
Understand that historically, mortgage interest rates have been anything but stable: one day they would fall &#8211; the next they would rise. The only thing that was certain was that they rarely remain the same for long periods of time. Someone in the market to buy a home would keep a close eye on rates. But just what is it that causes mortgage interest rates to fluctuate so often? There are many factors involved. But I assure you, they have stayed low for an abnormal length of time. It is time for the economy to heal and with that rates will have to rise.
<br /><br />
When interest rates change, it is the result of many complex factors. Those who study interest rates find that it is as difficult to forecast future interest rates as it is to forecast the weather. Since interest rates reflect human activity, a long-term forecast is virtually impossible. After a rise or fall in interest rates, analysts may sound confident about what caused the variation &#8211; but any truthful economist, banker, or analyst will tell you they can’t predict rates 5-10 years from now.
<br /><br />
Some of the factors that help to dictate interest rates are explained below.
<br /><br />
<strong>Interest rate behavior</strong><br />

By this time we all know that a slowing economy is good news for borrowers, as it means lower interest rates. If the demand for borrowing capital recedes, then so do interest rates. This is because there are more people who are ready to lend (sellers) than people who want to borrow (buyers). This means that buyers can command a lower price, i.e. lower interest rates. When the economy is slowing the demand for credit decreases, and interest rates go down. Now the unusual thing is that demand has picked up over the last 12 months and rates have not increased. This is because of the artificial low interest rate the Federal Reserve has imposed. 
<br /><br />
A growing economy is bad news for borrowers because it force up interest rates. When there is a greater demand for credit / money, it forces rates up. Interest rates move because of the laws of supply and demand. If the demand for credit (loans) increases, so do interest rates. This is because there are more people who want money (buyers) than there are people willing to lend it, so those lenders can command a better price; ie, higher interest rates. When the economy is expanding there is a higher demand for credit, so interest rates go up.
<br /><br />
Interest rates are the price for borrowing money. Interest rates move up and down, reflecting many factors. The most important among these is the supply of funds, availability and parameters for loans from lenders, and the demand from borrowers. In addition, to keep our banks liquid regulators force certain parameters on the lenders which effect how much a consumer has to put down or have in reserve to qualify.
<br /><br />
Take the mortgage and lending market for example. In a period when consumers are borrowing money to buy homes, banks and equity need to have the funds available to lend. They get these from their own depositors. The banks will pay 6% interest on certain financial instruments, and then charge 8% interest on a five year mortgage. That is how they make money. If the demand for borrowing is higher than the funds they have available, they then borrow money from other groups by issuing bonds to institutions in the &#8220;wholesale market&#8221;. This source of funds is always more expensive. When banks and equity have lots of money to lend and the housing market and demand for capital is slow, any borrower financing a house or purchase gets a lower rate, and in  a free market, most lenders will be very competitive, keeping rates low.
<br /><br />
Realize that money is perfectly liquid and because of that it is converted easily.  In particular, when the demand for money rises, so do interest rates – the “price” of borrowing money. There are many economic drivers that can increase demand –  rising consumer spending, the belief that costs for buying and selling will increase, the expectation of a stronger dollar in the near future, increased demand for reserves from central banks (both foreign and domestic), and a rise in foreign demand for US goods and investments. With this demand, there is less desire for the lower return on current bonds. With this greater demand for money, the central banks can charge more. So, each of these aspects pushes up the demand for US dollars, while the reverse decreases the demand for dollars. A rising demand for money, with all else constant, will raise interest rates while the opposite is also true. The opposite can also happen during times when the market becomes averse to riskier assets because investors will move into the dollar and U.S. debt in a search for safety. The demand for money, combined with the supply of money determine interest rates. Since currency is the most liquid store of value, its demand demonstrates the demand, or preference, for liquidity.
<br /><br />
Low rates will not be permanent. The only group buying treasury bonds is the Federal Reserve. The demand for lending is picking up at most of the major banks according to a national survey of CFOs and loan officers by the Federal Reserve, and most are planning to hire as well as lend in 2013, leading to expansion. More demand on money forces rates to go up. Mortgage and housing is just one component.
<br /><br />
For the non-finance majors out there, this happens in the fixed income markets as a whole. In a booming economy, many firms borrow funds to expand their companies, finance inventories, and even acquire other firms. With rates so low, many have held their own capital earnings, rather than invest. The return for earning for many is better than the cost of borrowing. Meanwhile, consumers look to buying cars, houses and other needs and begin to entertain more. This keeps the &#8220;demand for capital&#8221; at a high level, and interest rates higher than they otherwise might be. 
<br /><br />
The interest rates charged by banks are influenced heavily by the decisions and actions of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve, known as the &#8220;Fed&#8221;, can manipulate interest rates by buying and selling bonds in the bond markets. During economic times when the Fed wants to stimulate the market, the Fed buys bonds on the open market and pays for the bonds with cash. If the Fed continues to buy bonds, the market becomes flooded with cash. This excess cash in turn makes money more available for people who want to borrow. The result is interest rates will naturally come down as different lenders compete for a limited pool of borrowers.
<br /><br />
The effect of interest rates on consumers is well known. For every 1% rise in rates, consumers can buy 12% less. Values across the country have improved. Here in Texas they are near highs in all of our major metros. So if you don’t buy today, whether it is from increased home values or eventually higher borrowing costs, you will pay more.
<br /><br />
As consumer confidence grows people start spending money. What do they buy? Everything under the sun, but consumer goods is the term you will hear most often. People buy cars, computers, and appliances. As demand for products increase, companies can begin to charge more for their products. As companies begin to make more profits it is not long before workers begin asking for more benefits and more money in their paychecks. As companies meet worker demands, the company experiences increased costs and expenses then inflation begins.
<br /><br />
In the last sixty years there has not a better time to purchase a home. You will never be able to afford to buy as much house as you can today! Plain and simple. Draw all the charts and graphs you want. The fact still is: Now is the time to buy! If not now, when?
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		<title>Name Tags</title>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 10 May 2013 14:01:48 +0000</pubDate>
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