Demographics

Since the founding of Texas, there has been constant change in the composition of the state’s growth. Population in rural areas in many parts of the state is declining and in all likelihood will continue to. The opposite is true in Texas’s four major metros. Projections show that the state’s doubling of population in the next twenty years will occur mainly in Houston Dallas / Ft Worth, San Antonio and Austin. It is critical to understand these changes in generations, cultural backgrounds, family histories, etc. as these new families move here or raise their families here. We need to understand that diversity is increasing as a national phenomenon, not just in Texas, California and New York, but the country as a whole. Here’s some key facts about the changing demographics of our state and nation.

Overall, Texas’s population will double over the next forty years

  • Bastrop County population will double in seventeen years, and will have grown six times as large from 2000 to 2040
  • Hays County population will double in fourteen years, or 147% over the next 40 years
  • Williamson County population will double in thirteen years, or 204% over the next forty years
  • San Antonio had the 8th largest boost from migration among people 55+, 2,577 people per each year
  • The birth rate in the US has been declining since 2005

  • The US population grew in 2011 at the lowest rate since 1940
  • By the 2030s, immigration will be the only source of population growth, while organic growth will be flat or negative
  • US population grew by over 1% a year until 2007 and is now growing less than 1% per year
  • Since 2008, the U.S. total fertility ratio (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 and is now approaching 1.9 children per woman. A fertility level of 2.6 children per women is considered ‘replacement level’
  • At a rate of 1 million immigrants a year, immigration will be insufficient to reverse these negative demographic trends in the short run

    Baby Boomers

  • Texas Baby Boomers’ average age is 44, with 66% married, 22% divorced or seperate.
  • Most were parents (84%) and the average number of children is 2.65
  • 73% are fully employed
  • Boomers’ incomes rose faster than previous generations, leading to never before seen levels of consumer spending
  • As Boomers’ age, they are looking to retire in areas that can maintain their lifestyle, near others their age
  • The recession had delayed retirement for many, with individual’s retirement portfolios and home equity greatly reduced
  • More affluent empty nest Boomers look to buy CBD condos
  • 5.9m Boomers, roughly 29% of the sixteen and older population
  • 31.7% of of the 78.2 million people engaged in the workforce nationally are Boomers looking to retire in the next ten years
  • Texas is somewhat better off with Generation X and Y making the largest proportion in the workforce
  • The US dependency ratio (sum of people under 14 and over 65, divided by the number of people aged 15-64) had declined for several decades – essentially the ratio between the too young and the too old and the middle aged people that must support them
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